Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe789…113f sports 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$3
politics 23% −$3
other 20% −$1
crypto 12% $0
economics 10% −$1
tech 5% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 161 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 152
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage170d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $170 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $102 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $129 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $104 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $37 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 11d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 11d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 11d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $41 23d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $41 23d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 36d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 38d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 38d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 39d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 126d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 126d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $44 126d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $44 126d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $46 126d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $47 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 126d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $48 126d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $48 126d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $42 126d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $42 126d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $50 126d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $50 126d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 126d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records