Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe780…8a5d crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-15%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day54.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% $0
other 35% −$5
sports 23% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.8% -15.7% 73% 18% -24.9%
≤30d 33 -6.8% -15.7% 73% 18% -24.9%
≤90d 33 -6.8% -15.7% 73% 18% -24.9%
all 33 -6.8% -15.7% 73% 18% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 18% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 3% -32.1%
15% -31.1% 0% -38.7%
20% -37.9% 0% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day54.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 117 history records