Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe77b…6248 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,857 (+62%) realized +$3,012 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$661per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 597d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% +$2,261
other 19% +$247
sports 8% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +103.6% +84.2% 100% 100% +91.2%
≤30d 3 +103.6% +84.2% 100% 100% +91.2%
≤90d 3 +103.6% +84.2% 100% 100% +91.2%
all 5 +55.6% +40.8% 80% 80% +53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.8% 80% +53.7%
10% +27.3% 80% +39.0%
15% +15.0% 60% +25.6%
20% +3.7% 40% +13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$726 vs −$85 · ×8.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.14 per $1 lost it wins $34.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$3,012
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage597d
Avg bet$661
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 65¢ 69¢ $400 $428 +$28 (+7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $190 $7 −$183 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 +$487 +238%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $65 +$19 +29%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $306 +$136 +44%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3,368 +$2,261 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 44m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 65¢ $406 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $692 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $443 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $65 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 3d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 9¢ $85 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 595d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $5,566 595d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 595d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 595d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,368 596d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.61 · official $434.67 (match) · 16 history records