trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $28 | +$9 (+50%) |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $24 | $18 | −$6 (-25%) |
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? | Yes | 19¢ | 65¢ | $4 | $13 | +$9 (+250%) |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $4 | $3 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $29 | $0 | −$29 (-100%) |
| Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -84% |
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$3 | -58% |
| Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? | Jun 13 | $4 | −$1 | -18% |
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$1 | -56% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $110 | +$14 | +12% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $109 | −$3 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $19 | −$4 | -20% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $16 | −$3 | -17% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$2 | -19% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 13 | $17 | −$3 | -16% |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | Jun 13 | $17 | −$4 | -23% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -22% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $62 | −$14 | -23% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$14 | -98% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$5 | +46% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $30 | −$25 | -81% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $150 | −$67 | -45% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $72 | +$23 | +32% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $108 | −$11 | -10% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $19 | +$2 | +10% |
| Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Jun 12 | $7 | −$6 | -98% |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$8 | -55% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $31 | +$22 | +71% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $7 | +$2 | +34% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 11 | $59 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $30 | −$29 | -98% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 28 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 29% | 18% | -22.5% |
| ≤30d | 28 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 29% | 18% | -22.5% |
| ≤90d | 28 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 29% | 18% | -22.5% |
| all | 28 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 29% | 18% | -22.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -33.5% | 18% | -22.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -39.9% | 14% | -29.9% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 7% | -36.7% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 4% | -42.9% |