Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe77b…4938 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$31 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$15
other 27% −$32
sports 12% +$14
crypto 5% −$17
culture 4% +$12
world 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.1% -0.4% 50% 50% -21.6%
≤30d 21 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 29% -33.2%
≤90d 49 -16.0% -24.0% 37% 22% -18.4%
all 62 -10.2% -18.8% 39% 27% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 27% -16.3%
10% -26.5% 24% -24.3%
15% -33.6% 24% -31.6%
20% -40.1% 23% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)62 / 71
History coverage221d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $4 +$2 +59%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%? May 16 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.9% and 2.2%? May 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 2.3% and 2.6%? May 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? May 15 $8 +$11 +131%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 09 $3 +$1 +40%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou May 07 $57 −$5 -9%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? May 03 $1 $0 -13%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $26 +$3 +10%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Dec 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 49m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 29h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 65¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $5 7d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $3 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $5 17d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.02 · official $106.02 (match) · 197 history records