Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe77a…f64d crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$3 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$7
tech 24% +$1
other 20% −$10
weather 7% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.6% +10.9% 83% 58% -6.9%
≤30d 12 +22.6% +10.9% 83% 58% -6.9%
≤90d 12 +22.6% +10.9% 83% 58% -6.9%
all 12 +22.6% +10.9% 83% 58% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 58% -6.9%
10% +0.3% 58% -15.8%
15% -9.4% 50% -24.0%
20% -18.3% 33% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 67¢ 54¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Yes 52¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +137%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 65¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 19h
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 19h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 85¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day BUY Up 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.58 · official $83.96 (match) · 34 history records