Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe778…9dbb other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+19%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$23
sports 3% −$4
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% +2.9%
≤30d 10 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% +2.9%
≤90d 10 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% +2.9%
all 10 -30.8% -37.4% 20% 20% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 20% +2.9%
10% -43.4% 20% -7.0%
15% -48.9% 20% -15.9%
20% -53.9% 20% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$6 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $64 −$38 -60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$56 +138%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$11 +51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 23m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $29 44m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $35 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 20h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.03 · official $64.93 (match) · 27 history records