Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe773…e1b0 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-6%) realized −$38 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$305
world 4% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 56% +35.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 56% +35.6%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 56% +35.6%
all 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 56% +35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 56% +35.6%
10% -18.3% 56% +22.6%
15% -26.2% 22% +10.7%
20% -33.4% 22% -0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$25 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Soon-Woo Kwon 43¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 78¢ 74¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $355 +$350 +99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $50 +$31 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $49 +$11 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 50¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 51¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 51¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 51¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 52¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 48¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 45¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 43¢ $51 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 64¢ $50 2d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 75¢ $50 3d
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Draper 81¢ $49 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 76¢ $50 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.57 · official $66.57 (match) · 29 history records