Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe770…4a3b other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$27
politics 27% −$18
sports 18% −$14
crypto 11% −$8
economics 6% −$5
world 4% +$2
finance 3% −$3
culture 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 70 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 122 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 139 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 120
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage103d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 91¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 20 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $497 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $202 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $78 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rayan Cherki win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $39 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $57 $0 +1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $53 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $174 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 04 $146 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 91¢ $57 2h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 93¢ $31 6h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 93¢ $28 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 11h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $42 12h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $42 16h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 17h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 29h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $42 30h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 37h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $31 37h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 42h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $59 42h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $59 47h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $65 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $65 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $68 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $67 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.77 · official $41.66 (match) · 530 history records