Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe76f…39fc sports 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$79 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%292W / 290L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$161
14 days−$121
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$2,137
sports 37% +$461
world 5% +$1,704
politics 0% +$7
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 52% -14.9%
≤30d 127 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 51% -15.5%
≤90d 412 -33.7% -40.0% 36% 36% -85.8%
all 582 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 46% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 46% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 44% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 39% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$177 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses292 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions11
Markets (closed)582 / 593
History coverage234d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+37%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+31%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $36 $50 +$14 (+39%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 31¢ $36 $26 −$10 (-28%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ 46¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$20 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$59 +73%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$3 -20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $50 −$9 -18%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$20 +128%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 17 $84 −$22 -26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$32 +127%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$26 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $90 −$2 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$100 -66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $47 −$46 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$60 +388%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $193 +$172 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$16 +106%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $135 −$133 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $126 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 −$10 -60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $25 +$6 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$83 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$33 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$26 +168%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$10 +68%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$12 +80%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +106%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $26 +$12 +47%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $61 55m
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $36 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 21h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $35 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 28h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $15 28h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $15 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 32h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $62 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 32h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $58 37h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $88 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $25 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $41 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 46¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.23 · official $439.24 (match) · 1262 history records