trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $122 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $70 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 28 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Mar 18 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 67% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 67% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 67% | 0% | -8.4% |
| all | 12 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 92% | 0% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 0% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 0% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 0% | -32.5% |