Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe76d…3902 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$9
other 4% +$21
politics 3% −$4
crypto 3% +$18
world 1% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
≤30d 1 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
≤90d 1 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
all 8 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% +12.8%
10% -21.8% 25% +2.0%
15% -29.4% 25% -7.9%
20% -36.3% 12% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$1,161
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage285d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $1,008 $1,020 +$12 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $144 $141 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Jun 26 $17 +$3 +19%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Oct 11 $36 +$18 +49%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Oct 03 $12 +$3 +22%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Sep 24 $19 $0 -1%
North Korea missile launch by October 15? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $28 +$21 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $214 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $147 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $427 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $385 2h
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? SELL No 76¢ $53 258d
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? SELL No 71¢ $7 266d
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $1 274d
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $12 274d
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 274d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $19 274d
North Korea missile launch by October 15? SELL No 72¢ $7 274d
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? SELL No 75¢ $1 275d
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? SELL No 75¢ $7 275d
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $20 275d
North Korea missile launch by October 15? BUY No 72¢ $7 275d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $9 277d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $9 277d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $8 277d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $8 277d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY No 34¢ $3 277d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY No 34¢ $7 277d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 284d
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? BUY No 60¢ $12 284d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 284d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,161.00 · official $1,161.00 (match) · 27 history records