Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe76d…f666 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$145 (+4%) realized +$149 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1,003
sports 23% +$1,122
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -6.6%
≤30d 13 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -6.6%
≤90d 13 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -6.6%
all 13 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 31% -6.6%
10% -30.4% 31% -15.5%
15% -37.1% 31% -23.7%
20% -43.3% 31% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$457 vs −$190 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $79 $75 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $314 −$310 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $863 +$461 +53%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $106 +$494 +468%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $751 +$629 +84%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $245 +$246 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $81 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $153 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $204 2d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $314 4d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 50¢ $508 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,323 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $625 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,380 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $599 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $106 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $245 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $491 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $237 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $245 5d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.41 · official $82.59 · 22 history records