Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe76d…5a75 sports 460 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,896 (-2%) realized −$2,028 · open +$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate70%318W / 134L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day148.1pace
Fees−$2,697est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$794
14 days−$1,944
30 days−$1,533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,415
world 0% −$19
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% −$8
other 0% +$44
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 26% -11.6%
≤30d 452 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 24% -11.0%
≤90d 452 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 24% -11.0%
all 452 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 24% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 24% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 17% -19.5%
15% -26.2% 14% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 11% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$88 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized−$2,028
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses318 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,697
Open positions8
Markets (closed)452 / 460
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day148.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ 100¢ $164 $350 +$185 (+113%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 90¢ 76¢ $127 $108 −$19 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $12 $24 +$13 (+113%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $117 +$9 +8%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $189 +$21 +11%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $833 +$15 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $299 +$9 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $240 +$50 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $35 +$2 +4%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$11 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $505 +$75 +15%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $724 +$12 +2%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $82 −$10 -12%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $154 +$7 +5%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $261 +$13 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $632 +$160 +25%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $310 +$189 +61%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $490 +$10 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $57 +$27 +47%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $295 −$54 -18%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $195 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $143 −$73 -51%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $136 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $155 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $435 +$17 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $626 −$306 -49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 +$83 +178%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $880 −$146 -17%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $220 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$11 +122%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $212 +$12 +6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $275 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $74 +$2 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $345 +$16 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $46 +$8 +18%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $213 +$6 +3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $402 −$80 -20%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $295 +$54 +18%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,388 +$29 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $105 +$47 +45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 +$89 +59%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $239 +$89 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $185 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $37 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $4 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $100 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $20 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $25 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $74 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $18 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $31 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $35 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $28 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $42 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $186 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $14 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $23 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $57 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $265 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $215 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $45 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL Gen.G Global Academy 42¢ $74 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL Gen.G Global Academy 42¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL Gen.G Global Academy 42¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.96 · official $563.96 (match) · 3500 history records