Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe76b…65f3 world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$144 (-2%) realized −$149 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$189
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$278
other 10% +$17
politics 1% +$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.5% -0.9% 19% 10% -2.0%
≤30d 24 +11.7% +1.0% 25% 12% +12.4%
≤90d 25 +10.4% -0.1% 24% 12% -3.9%
all 56 +14.3% +3.4% 46% 20% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 20% -14.8%
10% -6.5% 14% -23.0%
15% -15.5% 14% -30.4%
20% -23.8% 11% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage375d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $294 $302 +$8 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $54 +$1 +3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 24 $11 −$1 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1 $0 -29%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 +$70 +1290%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $192 +$144 +75%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $330 +$31 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $518 −$108 -21%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 16 $73 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $411 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $406 +$5 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 10 $1,588 −$366 -23%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $279 +$4 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $62 +$4 +6%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $54 +$7 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Sep 19 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Erling Haaland sign with a new club during the transfer window? Sep 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Amad Diallo sign with a new club during the transfer window? Sep 04 $6 $0 +4%
Will Emiliano Martinez sign with a new club during the transfer window Sep 04 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Antony sign with a new club during the transfer window? Sep 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 08 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel strikes Iran before August? Jul 22 $6 −$4 -54%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jul 01 $57 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 26? Jun 23 $8 −$6 -72%
Israel strike on Iran on June 25? Jun 23 $9 −$7 -73%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -36%
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +42%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 22 $29 −$9 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $54 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 75¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 76¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 12¢ $1 5d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No $1 5d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $1 5d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $1 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 28¢ $1 5d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 6d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $294 6d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $1 6d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No $1 6d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 13¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 11¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $33 6d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 6d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 25¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $1 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $2 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $6 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $3 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.22 · official $355.22 (match) · 311 history records