Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe76b…b7cd politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
politics 31% $0
sports 16% $0
other 12% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 17% 0% -10.7%
all 39 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage314d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $85 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $117 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 −$4 -23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Sep 02 $3 $0 -7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Bolivia Election? Aug 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? Aug 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $1 $0 -23%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $9 $0 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 13 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $33 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $40 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $29 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $36 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $14 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $8 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $22 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records