Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe76a…37c4 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$211 (+1%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$806per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$162
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 73% −$15
other 24% +$186
sports 3% −$15
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 36% -5.8%
≤30d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 35% -5.8%
≤90d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 35% -5.8%
all 40 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 35% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 35% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 30% -14.8%
15% -23.1% 25% -23.0%
20% -30.7% 15% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage9d
Avg bet$806
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 32¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $176 +$84 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $640 +$40 +6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$8 +137%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $208 +$97 +46%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$41 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$37 -54%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$3 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $161 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,741 −$4 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $244 −$1 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $515 −$14 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $137 +$127 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $255 +$133 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$17 +192%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $832 −$137 -16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 −$10 -7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $516 −$19 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $136 −$83 -61%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $174 −$102 -59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +30%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $4 +$1 +36%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $6 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 50m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 50m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 54m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 54m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 55m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 56m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $976 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $798 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $801 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $981 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $984 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $979 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $31 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $45 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $232 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.72 · official $52.53 (match) · 253 history records