Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe769…f232 crypto 913 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$995 (-38%) realized −$1,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%400W / 796L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day212.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,153
7 days−$1,171
14 days−$1,212
30 days−$1,222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 -39.0% -44.8% 17% 16% -74.5%
≤30d 1196 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 30% -36.3%
≤90d 1196 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 30% -36.3%
all 1196 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 30% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover212.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 30% -36.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 25% -42.4%
15% -39.2% 20% -47.9%
20% -45.2% 16% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses400 / 796
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1196 / 913
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day212.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$9 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$12 -587%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$4 -251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$14 -436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$3 -297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$4 -311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$3 -242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -161%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records