Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E7 0xe767…a93d other 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$7
politics 20% −$5
sports 5% −$34
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -3.9% -13.1% 7% 6% -9.7%
all 111 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 5% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $522 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $594 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $359 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $354 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $545 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $359 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $356 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $363 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $344 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $188 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $376 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $365 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $372 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 28m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 18h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 24h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 40h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $65 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.89 · official $67.89 (match) · 326 history records