Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe766…59e3 crypto 1870 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$656 (-3%) realized −$659 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%1502W / 643L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,947
7 days−$1,476
14 days−$601
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 619 -68.2% -71.3% 25% 25% -30.3%
≤30d 1629 -16.3% -24.3% 66% 64% -9.1%
≤90d 2145 -12.7% -21.0% 70% 65% -10.5%
all 2145 -12.7% -21.0% 70% 65% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 65% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 40% -19.1%
15% -35.5% 5% -26.9%
20% -41.8% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$659
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1502 / 643
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2145 / 1870
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 73¢ 80¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $26 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $30 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $24 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.03 · official $97.90 · 3500 history records