Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe766…404d sports 515 markets active 0h ago coverage 415d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35,446 (-18%) realized −$35,028 · open −$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%274W / 240L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$533est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,017
7 days−$9,757
14 days−$13,109
30 days−$12,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$30,876
other 12% −$3,866
politics 2% +$138
culture 1% +$4
world 1% −$19
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$6
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -52.0% -56.5% 33% 29% -46.0%
≤30d 46 -42.9% -48.4% 37% 33% -38.0%
≤90d 58 -43.3% -48.7% 40% 31% -37.5%
all 514 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 44% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 44% -25.5%
10% -26.0% 38% -32.6%
15% -33.2% 34% -39.1%
20% -39.7% 28% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +46% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$449 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

415d coverage
Net worth$2,440
Realized−$35,028
Unrealized−$418
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses274 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$533
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 515
History coverage415d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 67¢ 57¢ $2,858 $2,440 −$418 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $1,587 +$1,259 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,144 +$361 +32%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,634 +$516 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $1,586 +$1,014 +64%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $623 −$623 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $933 −$933 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,808 −$2,785 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $637 +$169 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $520 −$520 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $995 +$720 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $941 −$941 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $846 −$846 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,678 −$1,735 -47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,439 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $592 −$592 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $925 +$415 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $735 −$735 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $984 +$684 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $794 −$794 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $857 +$503 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $986 +$579 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $587 −$587 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $666 −$666 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $261 +$10 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $221 −$221 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $680 +$1,263 +186%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $463 −$463 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,149 +$305 +27%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,371 −$1,371 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $917 +$472 +52%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $711 −$711 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,077 −$1,077 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $865 −$865 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,388 +$595 +43%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $868 +$655 +75%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $128 −$128 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 23 $164 +$36 +22%
Wizards vs. Knicks Mar 23 $192 +$8 +4%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 22 $122 −$122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $417 26m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $2,464 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $257 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $3 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $19 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $106 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $4 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $33 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $356 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $237 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $9 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $15 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $56 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $4 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $168 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $3 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $2 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $56 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $56 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $6 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $60 11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $26 11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $19 12h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,440.46 · official $2,567.79 · 2645 history records