Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe763…149a other 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%63W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$74
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$121
sports 32% +$37
crypto 3% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -20.9% -28.5% 42% 39% -14.7%
≤30d 145 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 41% -13.4%
≤90d 145 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 41% -13.4%
all 145 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 41% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 37% -21.6%
15% -30.7% 28% -29.2%
20% -37.5% 21% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses63 / 82
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)145 / 154
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $47 −$1 -2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$4 -12%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +14%
United States to win the second half? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 −$1 -1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $182 +$22 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$25 -41%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 $0 +7%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$12 -46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$23 -75%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -37%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $19 −$14 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$7 +114%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Second half draw? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$7 -46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 0m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 8m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 14m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $36 16m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 18¢ $1 18m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 27m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 32m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $55 34m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 44m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $6 4h
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $8 4h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 5h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.86 · official $36.86 (match) · 362 history records