Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe763…cb4d other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+23%) realized +$23 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$11
other 49% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.3% -33.3% 40% 40% -26.7%
≤30d 13 -32.5% -39.0% 38% 38% -34.6%
≤90d 39 +23.4% +11.7% 44% 41% +14.7%
all 39 +23.4% +11.7% 44% 41% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 41% +14.7%
10% +1.0% 41% +3.8%
15% -8.8% 38% -6.3%
20% -17.7% 28% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 $0 +48%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 $0 -12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $2 +$2 +90%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $6 +$9 +146%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $2 −$2 -83%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $5 +$2 +33%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $4 +$2 +39%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $1 +$19 +1898%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 4d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 16d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 22¢ $1 18d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 32d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 35d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 36d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 36d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 41d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 41d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 43d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 44d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 78 history records