Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe762…e139 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$12
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -1.7% -11.0% 27% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 11 -1.7% -11.0% 27% 0% -12.3%
all 40 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -10.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage304d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $82 −$11 -13%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $59 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Aug 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 22 $3 $0 -8%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Aug 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 20 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bol Aug 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $2 $0 +11%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $30 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $41 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $41 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $42 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $37 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $31 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $5 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $18 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $18 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.15 · official $27.15 (match) · 128 history records