Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe761…8a64 crypto 449 markets active 14h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$664 (-5%) realized −$664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate44%197W / 251L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$207
14 days−$462
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$335
weather 12% −$34
other 12% −$207
crypto 10% −$43
finance 8% −$39
politics 2% −$7
culture 1% −$7
tech 1% −$50
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -49.3% -54.1% 11% 11% -69.3%
≤30d 107 -30.6% -37.2% 20% 17% -28.0%
≤90d 322 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 18% -14.7%
all 448 -15.2% -23.2% 44% 21% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 21% -14.4%
10% -30.6% 11% -22.6%
15% -37.3% 8% -30.1%
20% -43.4% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses197 / 251
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)448 / 449
History coverage122d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 07 $95 −$7 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 07 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -84%
Will Ciena Q2 Networking Platforms revenue be above $1.25B? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ciena Q2 Networking Platforms revenue be above $1.4B? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $0 $0 -5%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +3%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $20 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Jesper de Jong vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.60B? Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Salesforce Q1 current RPO growth (CC) be between 14% and 15%? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $0 $0 -53%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 04 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B? Jun 04 $93 −$45 -48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -41%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10 Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by less than Jun 03 $0 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 03 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government Jun 03 $19 −$1 -6%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 2? Jun 02 $0 $0 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $40 +$14 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -10%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 01 $40 +$12 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $13 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL No 9¢ $2 14h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 9¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 5¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 5¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 5¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 6¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 6¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 6¢ $1 42h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 6d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL Yes 86¢ $43 6d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes 87¢ $44 6d
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) BUY Hijikata 57¢ $28 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 40¢ $9 9d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL Yes 80¢ $40 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 92¢ $46 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 5¢ $2 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 5¢ $2 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL Yes 92¢ $46 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 93¢ $46 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 64¢ $45 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? SELL No 1¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY No 1¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY No 1¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 1516 history records