Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe75c…4c68 sports 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-34%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$48
other 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% +17.8%
≤30d 4 -35.5% -41.7% 25% 25% -14.1%
≤90d 11 -12.5% -20.8% 27% 27% -42.4%
all 18 -6.9% -15.8% 22% 22% -56.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 22% -56.6%
10% -23.8% 22% -60.8%
15% -31.2% 22% -64.6%
20% -37.9% 17% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage228d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Mar 20 $1 +$5 +456%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Mar 20 $8 +$4 +49%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Nov 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $37 −$27 -73%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $14 −$4 -29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $2 +$12 +613%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Nov 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $3 25d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 21¢ $1 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 22¢ $5 38d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 47¢ $7 87d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Gen.G 81¢ $10 88d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 12¢ $1 89d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 67¢ $8 163d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 44¢ $2 216d
Hawks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 65¢ $5 218d
Wizards vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 18¢ $1 218d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $16 220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 63¢ $3 220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $7 220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $15 220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $12 220d
Clippers vs. Suns BUY Clippers $1 222d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $13 227d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 76¢ $10 227d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 28¢ $4 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $14 228d
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers BUY Nuggets 88¢ $3 228d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $2 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records