Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe75b…e216 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$16
other 16% +$1
politics 8% −$5
finance 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +3.8% -6.0% 92% 8% -6.2%
≤90d 12 +3.8% -6.0% 92% 8% -6.2%
all 41 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 5% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -7.7%
10% -20.5% 5% -16.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -24.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage449d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $14 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $48 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $86 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $42 +$10 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 +8%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +4%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 25 $10 $0 -3%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $9 $0 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on May 7? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $6 +$1 +26%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 26 $7 $0 -4%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 25 $7 $0 -3%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $8 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $8 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $36 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $16 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $48 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $47 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $18 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $15 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $8 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $44 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 41¢ $42 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $13 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $27 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.13 · official $39.13 (match) · 124 history records