Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe753…c213
other · 66 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$26 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage466d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 +$3 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $111 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $4 $0 -9%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $27 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in May? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 09 $4 $0 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 06 $2 $0 -12%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Fartcoin dip to $0.85 before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 18 $39 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$2
other 25% +$4
politics 11% +$3
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
weather 4% $0
culture 4% +$2
tech 3% −$1
sports 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $34 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $1 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $18 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $18 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $14 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $35 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.6% -8.0% 22% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 15% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 15% 8% -9.2%
all 65 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -7.9%
10% -18.1% 2% -16.7%
15% -26.0% 2% -24.8%
20% -33.3% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.84 · official $33.84 (match) · 208 history records