Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe753…be30 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 0% -9.5%
all 14 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 98¢ 92¢ $80 $75 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $130 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $259 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $100 −$10 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $180 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $41 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 96¢ $50 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $90 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $90 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $82 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $80 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $80 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $80 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 98¢ $68 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 97¢ $50 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $50 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.50 · official $75.50 (match) · 72 history records