Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe752…96fb other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge
Total PnL +$101 (+9%) realized +$99 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$64
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$23
sports 3% +$47
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 49% -8.0%
≤30d 53 +31.6% +19.1% 58% 53% -3.8%
≤90d 53 +31.6% +19.1% 58% 53% -3.8%
all 53 +31.6% +19.1% 58% 53% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 53% -3.8%
10% +7.7% 45% -13.0%
15% -2.7% 42% -21.4%
20% -12.2% 28% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage23d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $98 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $270 −$29 -11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $151 +$4 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $129 +$21 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +36%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 22 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $95 +$1 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 −$4 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 -24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +176%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +175%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +283%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +366%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$18 +588%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +103%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$14 +242%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $124 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $117 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 71¢ $117 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $153 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $151 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $144 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $124 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $6 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $107 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $94 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $95 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.72 · official $100.72 (match) · 119 history records