Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe751…9af6 sports 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3,797 (-10%) realized −$3,797 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%145W / 89L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$819est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$387
7 days−$826
14 days−$654
30 days−$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,879
other 8% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 38% -48.2%
≤30d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 55% -35.4%
≤90d 222 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 56% -19.4%
all 234 -1.9% -11.3% 62% 56% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 56% -19.3%
10% -19.8% 47% -27.0%
15% -27.5% 35% -34.1%
20% -34.6% 21% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$156 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,797
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses145 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$819
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage92d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $203 +$262 +129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $717 −$565 -79%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$98 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$51 +34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $301 −$298 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $111 +$54 +48%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $102 −$82 -80%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $102 +$40 +39%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $179 +$36 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $202 +$72 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group May 12 $102 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner May 12 $306 +$111 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $277 −$113 -41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $603 −$600 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 12 $102 −$16 -15%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 12 $154 −$15 -10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 12 $202 +$71 +35%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 10 $102 +$48 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 10 $101 +$54 +53%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 10 $180 +$166 +92%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner May 09 $101 +$82 +81%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner May 09 $205 +$151 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 09 $292 +$76 +26%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 +$43 +43%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 +$84 +82%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 2 Winner May 07 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 07 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner May 07 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 07 $511 −$511 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 07 $72 +$83 +116%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 07 $161 +$76 +47%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 07 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 07 $339 +$74 +22%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $203 +$119 +58%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 02 $305 +$38 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $303 −$293 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 02 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $203 +$19 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 01 $102 +$51 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winne May 01 $102 +$154 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $152 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $717 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $228 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $73 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $203 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 29¢ $250 23d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY LNG Esports 64¢ $27 36d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 69¢ $301 45d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 86¢ $165 45d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 57¢ $111 45d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Kiwoom DRX 4¢ $20 45d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 19¢ $102 45d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Weibo Gaming 38¢ $142 45d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 26¢ $102 45d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LNG Esports 88¢ $155 45d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LNG Esports 91¢ $60 45d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LNG Esports 73¢ $179 45d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $274 46d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 73¢ $202 46d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL MOUZ NXT 50¢ $77 47d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL MOUZ NXT 50¢ $38 47d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL MOUZ NXT 52¢ $40 47d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY MOUZ NXT 32¢ $102 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 583 history records