Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe751…5a2a politics 546 markets active 2d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$88 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%317W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$98
other 27% $0
sports 16% −$31
world 11% −$14
tech 6% −$7
economics 4% +$31
finance 2% −$3
weather 1% +$12
crypto 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.2% -18.7% 53% 24% -27.6%
≤30d 132 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 33% -15.0%
≤90d 447 -2.5% -11.7% 71% 26% -11.3%
all 447 -2.5% -11.7% 71% 26% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 26% -11.3%
10% -20.2% 11% -19.7%
15% -27.9% 5% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$846
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses317 / 130
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions99
Markets (closed)447 / 546
History coverage88d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 73¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? No 62¢ 63¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 52¢ 57¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+11%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 70¢ 80¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No 55¢ 89¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+62%)
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 77¢ 95¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+23%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 72¢ 81¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 70¢ 94¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+34%)
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? No 34¢ 45¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+32%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 82¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 75¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 94¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 81¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat? No 33¢ 39¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No 72¢ 84¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 72¢ 84¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 46¢ 54¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 71¢ 76¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? No 64¢ 73¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? No 40¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $33 −$20 -59%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -54%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 12 $8 −$5 -56%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 11 $18 +$3 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $26 −$16 -59%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 11 $8 +$6 +69%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 10 $25 −$9 -37%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 10 $21 −$11 -52%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Will Mullins McLeod win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pr Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? Jun 09 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 09 $12 +$4 +29%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 08 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 08 $16 −$8 -53%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $8 +$3 +39%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? Jun 07 $8 −$4 -52%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 07 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Jake Merrick win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary el Jun 07 $8 $0 -1%
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary elec Jun 06 $8 −$5 -56%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $8 $0 +5%
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 04 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $8 −$4 -51%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $24 $0 +1%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $28 −$10 -37%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $8 $0 +2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $17 −$9 -51%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $8 −$6 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY No 48¢ $8 2d
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? BUY No 27¢ $8 2d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $13 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $8 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 57¢ $8 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 56¢ $13 2d
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 63¢ $10 2d
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2d
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 2d
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? SELL No 17¢ $4 3d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 3d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 4d
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el SELL Yes 95¢ $9 4d
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? SELL No 15¢ $4 4d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 4d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 9¢ $1 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $8 5d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 22¢ $3 5d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY No 71¢ $8 6d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 76¢ $8 6d
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 96¢ $8 6d
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 82¢ $21 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 17¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 58¢ $8 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $8 6d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $846.32 · official $846.13 (match) · 1443 history records