Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E7 0xe74f…82ff other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 91L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$18
politics 14% −$2
economics 4% $0
sports 3% +$21
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 103 -2.8% -12.1% 12% 8% -9.7%
all 105 -1.6% -11.0% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage94d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $123 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $354 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $404 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $144 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 13h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 22h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 26h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $54 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 29d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $5 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.88 · official $111.88 (match) · 306 history records