Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe74e…f37a other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-8%) realized −$98 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$129
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$126
sports 37% −$228
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 10 -10.1% -18.7% 80% 20% -21.4%
all 14 -7.2% -16.0% 86% 14% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 14% -20.6%
10% -24.1% 14% -28.2%
15% -31.4% 14% -35.1%
20% -38.1% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$144 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage176d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 62¢ 62¢ $380 $377 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $257 +$129 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $157 −$155 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $60? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil May 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 19 $12 $0 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 16 $135 −$132 -98%
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by January 31? Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on January 10? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? Jan 10 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.00 · official $377.00 (match) · 27 history records