Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe74d…22fd
crypto · 209 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$45,170 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,586 · open +$5,609
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34,014
Realized+$18,586
Unrealized+$5,609
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses56 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions11
Markets (closed)197 / 209
History coverage210d
Avg bet$889
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 11 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,027
7 days+$3,812
14 days+$3,708
30 days+$3,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $4,789 $14,234 +$9,445 (+197%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 82¢ $3,000 $4,950 +$1,950 (+65%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 82¢ $3,000 $4,950 +$1,950 (+65%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,151 $2,090 −$61 (-3%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1,923 $2,082 +$158 (+8%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? No 50¢ 76¢ $1,197 $1,808 +$611 (+51%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1,060 $1,086 +$26 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 18¢ $3,000 $1,050 −$1,950 (-65%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $3,000 $1,050 −$1,950 (-65%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 10¢ $1,209 $536 −$673 (-56%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $54 $155 +$100 (+185%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $62 $22 −$40 (-64%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $59 $1 −$58 (-99%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $409 $0 −$409 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? No 1¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $380 −$176 -46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $958 −$856 -89%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1,080 −$1,038 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $6,029 +$5,446 +90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6,672 +$990 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $214 −$204 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $74 −$56 -76%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $622 −$78 -13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 10 $1,832 −$24 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 10 $3,360 −$275 -8%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 07 $356 +$84 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $321 −$200 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $445 −$445 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $4,182 +$810 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $222 −$62 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $129 −$66 -51%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $143 −$141 -98%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $981 +$18 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,580 +$80 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $1,382 +$259 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $305 −$217 -71%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 24 $179 −$54 -30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $506 −$461 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $43 −$40 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 23 $26 −$7 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $483 −$50 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 22 $69 +$51 +73%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 22 $382 −$8 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 22 $99 −$6 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? May 21 $1,171 −$184 -16%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 18 $38 +$157 +413%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $685 −$685 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? May 17 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 17 $5 −$5 -86%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$3 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $285 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 20% +$2,460
other 17% +$3,805
tech 17% +$3,878
crypto 16% +$5,735
world 15% +$6,740
culture 10% +$2,512
sports 3% −$463
economics 2% −$309
finance 1% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $69 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $82 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $19 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $65 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $24 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 39¢ $628 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $10 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $4 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $24 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $35 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $3 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $15 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $16 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $16 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $78 15h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $39 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $67 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.9% -33.9% 27% 27% +6.5%
≤30d 53 -19.0% -26.7% 19% 15% -1.7%
≤90d 106 -7.6% -16.4% 25% 21% +8.1%
all 197 -1.1% -10.5% 28% 23% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 23% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 17% -8.4%
15% -26.9% 13% -17.3%
20% -34.1% 12% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,013.64 · official $34,013.64 (match) · 3500 history records