Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe74b…ee88 sports 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31,984 (+13%) realized +$32,723 · open −$739
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%255W / 192L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$2,414est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,997
7 days−$3,065
14 days−$448
30 days+$2,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$3,727
world 26% +$11,206
crypto 11% +$2,778
other 4% +$1,175
politics 3% +$431
economics 1% +$67
finance 0% +$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -95.5% -95.9% 0% 0% -88.6%
≤30d 121 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 48% -7.3%
≤90d 447 +18.8% +7.5% 57% 50% -1.2%
all 447 +18.8% +7.5% 57% 50% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 50% -1.2%
10% -2.8% 46% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here -12.2% 41% -19.3%
20% -20.8% 35% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$544) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$291 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$7,631
Realized+$32,723
Unrealized−$739
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses255 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2,414
Open positions12
Markets (closed)447 / 458
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$549
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 92¢ $2,011 $2,315 +$304 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $1,511 $1,728 +$217 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 38¢ $1,454 $958 −$496 (-34%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $758 $953 +$195 (+26%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 63¢ 84¢ $561 $746 +$186 (+33%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $396 $350 −$46 (-12%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $378 $329 −$49 (-13%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 55¢ 12¢ $796 $182 −$614 (-77%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 56¢ 70¢ $29 $36 +$7 (+26%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $153 $33 −$120 (-79%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $283 $1 −$282 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $532 −$532 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $1,226 −$785 -64%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $358 −$351 -98%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs C9 Jun 26 $417 −$417 -100%
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $294 −$290 -99%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $368 −$362 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $1,576 +$416 +26%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $682 +$332 +49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $742 +$282 +38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -58%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $348 −$345 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $1,387 +$1,201 +87%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 21 $192 −$148 -77%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $590 +$495 +84%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $509 +$1,259 +247%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,183 −$482 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $3,544 +$16 +0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $273 −$273 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $1,593 −$1,578 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $518 −$518 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $507 −$505 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $1,128 −$86 -8%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $245 +$255 +104%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $248 +$441 +178%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,299 +$383 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,790 +$490 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $760 +$1,040 +137%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $390 +$193 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $275 +$440 +160%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $672 −$672 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,005 +$1,587 +158%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $560 +$140 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $383 +$367 +96%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $644 +$1,135 +176%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,066 −$1,052 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $639 +$901 +141%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $729 −$724 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $250 +$1,000 +400%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $380 +$240 +63%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $384 −$384 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2,941 −$722 -25%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $314 −$310 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $300 +$300 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming $16 49m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming $4 49m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming $23 49m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $536 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $2 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $6 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $6 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $39 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $154 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $3 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 10¢ $3 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 10¢ $3 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 10¢ $60 1h
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2h
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 71¢ $297 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 71¢ $235 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $17 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $7 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $4 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $18 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $0 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $2 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $4 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $21 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,631.34 · official $7,631.34 (match) · 3500 history records