Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe74a…7562 crypto 35 markets active 6d ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$789per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$8
politics 34% −$6
economics 21% −$6
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -3.0% -12.2% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,095) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage194d
Avg bet$789
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? May 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 9? Mar 27 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 08 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 10? Feb 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 28? Feb 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 09 $40 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $3,600 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 25 $3,588 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Jan 25 $3,645 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $3,130 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $3,133 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 9? Jan 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 24? Dec 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 11? Dec 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10? Dec 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 6? Dec 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 4? Dec 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 30? Dec 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 29 $2,095 −$2 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 29 $2,095 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 28 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $46 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $37 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $96 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 80d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 80d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 107d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 139d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 139d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $37 139d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 139d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $3,596 142d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $3,600 142d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $3,584 142d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3,588 142d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? SELL No 100¢ $3,641 142d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3,645 142d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,097 155d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,100 155d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,127 155d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,130 155d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,130 155d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,133 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $38 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 159d
Will Base launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.96 · official $117.96 (match) · 209 history records