Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe748…2b23
other · 843 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$555 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$549 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$549
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses139 / 660
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions44
Markets (closed)799 / 843
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 44 History 799 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$77
14 days−$90
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 24¢ 94¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+291%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+94%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+53%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +233%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +454%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 11 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -39%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 21% −$34
other 19% −$158
weather 15% −$79
sports 13% −$27
politics 10% −$75
tech 8% −$64
crypto 6% −$59
finance 3% −$27
culture 3% −$29
economics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 40m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 57m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -36.7% -42.7% 22% 15% -48.2%
≤30d 307 -45.8% -51.0% 16% 13% -47.9%
≤90d 799 -36.7% -42.7% 17% 14% -35.6%
all 799 -36.7% -42.7% 17% 14% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 14% -35.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 12% -41.7%
15% -53.2% 9% -47.4%
20% -57.8% 7% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.80 · official $40.70 (match) · 2574 history records