Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E7 0xe748…bc49 sports 1683 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$732 (-9%) realized −$734 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%748W / 853L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$661
7 days−$306
14 days+$105
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$1,329
other 12% +$41
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 446 -24.1% -31.3% 35% 34% -24.8%
≤30d 1038 +4.3% -5.7% 47% 46% -1.5%
≤90d 1601 +5.7% -4.4% 47% 46% -3.4%
all 1601 +5.7% -4.4% 47% 46% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 46% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 44% -12.7%
15% -21.9% 42% -21.1%
20% -29.5% 37% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$734
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses748 / 853
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1601 / 1683
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 79¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 77¢ 66¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner SAW 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 57¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+20%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 26¢ 37¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 38¢ 86¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 73¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 46¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs ECHO 33¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 15¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 33¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 G Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-03-21? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Acend (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-21? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-10? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Zena Esports vs Aeterna Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ben Sheppard: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $5 29m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 26¢ $3 46m
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner BUY SAW 50¢ $10 46m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 37¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 33¢ $2 2h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 37¢ $2 6h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $0 8h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $2 10h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 12h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $1 12h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 36¢ $6 12h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 16h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 18h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 18h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 100¢ $7 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 18h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 100¢ $11 19h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 41¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 46¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 28¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $5 21h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $7 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 41¢ $4 22h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $3 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $14 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.50 · official $133.72 (match) · 3500 history records