Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe745…5681 other 14 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$250 (-10%) realized −$253 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% $0
other 37% +$37
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.3% +20.6% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 3 +33.3% +20.6% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤90d 3 +33.3% +20.6% 33% 33% -1.1%
all 3 +33.3% +20.6% 33% 33% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 33% -1.1%
10% +9.1% 33% -10.5%
15% -1.4% 33% -19.2%
20% -11.1% 33% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$133 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$300 +293%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $170 −$166 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.12 · official $903.12 · 14 history records