Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe744…f96e crypto 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,206 (+1%) realized +$7,839 · open +$367
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%311W / 25L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,403per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$29,198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,000
world 1% +$535
other 0% +$372
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.8% -13.9% 86% 6% -20.2%
≤30d 148 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 3% -12.7%
≤90d 336 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 5% -9.6%
all 336 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 3% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$4,928) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$1,785 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$29,198
Realized+$7,839
Unrealized+$367
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses311 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)336 / 344
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$3,403
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $11,962 $11,835 −$127 (-1%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 77¢ 83¢ $6,765 $7,300 +$535 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 98¢ 97¢ $4,397 $4,364 −$34 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $2,269 $2,250 −$19 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,534 $1,560 +$27 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,030 $1,040 +$10 (+1%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $613 $608 −$5 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $262 $241 −$21 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $582 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $825 +$44 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1,164 +$19 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $873 +$53 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $2,987 +$94 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $414 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1,055 +$54 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $607 +$393 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $3,090 +$81 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $3,440 +$519 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,474 +$94 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $3,235 +$94 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,665 +$73 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $3,074 −$1,753 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $6,040 −$4,227 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $1,696 −$930 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3,388 +$36 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3,019 +$67 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,502 +$25 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $961 +$20 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $717 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $6,211 −$5,785 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,711 +$129 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $390 +$16 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5,507 +$115 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,972 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $6,580 +$508 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $659 −$655 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,217 +$168 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5,973 +$357 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $944 +$56 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,732 +$123 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3,247 +$117 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,207 +$169 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,104 +$107 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,322 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,358 +$96 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $104 +$16 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $3,720 +$121 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $6,469 +$410 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,752 +$105 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $4,977 +$57 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $271 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,612 +$42 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $7,026 +$404 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $6,085 +$278 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6,635 +$292 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6,867 +$184 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $641 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $636 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $978 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $175 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $2,204 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $272 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $1,355 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $218 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $60 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $60 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $60 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,014 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,364 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $785 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,966 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $811 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? BUY Yes 99¢ $87 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $3,712 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $8 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $8 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $2,563 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,197.72 · official $29,197.72 (match) · 3500 history records