Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe742…d705 crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-8%) realized −$116 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%51W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$192
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$101
sports 5% −$49
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -30.8% -37.4% 43% 35% -26.2%
≤30d 89 -30.8% -37.4% 43% 35% -26.2%
≤90d 89 -30.8% -37.4% 43% 35% -26.2%
all 110 -22.6% -29.9% 46% 38% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 38% -24.1%
10% -36.7% 30% -31.4%
15% -42.8% 25% -38.0%
20% -48.4% 11% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses51 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage117d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 37¢ 50¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$3 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -89%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -84%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$3 -16%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$19 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $48 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $58 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $56 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $13 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $16 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $11 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.83 · official $67.83 (match) · 268 history records