Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe73f…8c12 other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-22%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$2
other 45% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -97.8% -98.0% 0% 0% -97.0%
≤30d 3 -44.5% -49.8% 33% 33% -49.2%
≤90d 3 -44.5% -49.8% 33% 33% -49.2%
all 3 -44.5% -49.8% 33% 33% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 33% -49.2%
10% -54.6% 33% -54.1%
15% -59.0% 33% -58.5%
20% -63.0% 33% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage26d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $2 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.17 · official $3.17 (match) · 8 history records