Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe73d…4c38 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$6
other 26% $0
politics 4% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 15 -7.4% -16.2% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -6.9% -15.8% 31% 0% -10.2%
all 38 -2.5% -11.8% 47% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage453d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $92 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $63 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 −$1 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $12 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $69 −$2 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $29 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $30 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 116 history records