Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe739…6b8e other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,955 (-2%) realized −$1,955 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$804per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$822now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$388
politics 33% −$41
sports 13% −$1,542
world 4% +$10
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -1.6% -11.0% 6% 0% -11.1%
all 135 -5.5% -14.5% 19% 8% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 8% -11.2%
10% -22.7% 8% -19.7%
15% -30.1% 8% -27.4%
20% -37.0% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,072) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$822
Realized−$1,955
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage156d
Avg bet$804
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $548 $548 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $274 $274 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,869 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $957 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,877 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $236 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 02 $390 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,006 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,089 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,861 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $517 +$1 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,469 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $839 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,727 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,904 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,049 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $414 17h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $415 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $549 26h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $768 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $769 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $928 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $930 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $863 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $956 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $957 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $771 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $772 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $975 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $977 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $916 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $917 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $809 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $706 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $707 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $820 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $822 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $808 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $997 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $998 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $886 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $888 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $821.79 · official $821.79 (match) · 432 history records