Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe738…df65
world · 163 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$62,707 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59,475 · open +$2,932
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$271,038
Realized+$59,475
Unrealized+$2,932
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses36 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$619
Open positions112
Markets (closed)64 / 163
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2,947
Trades / day294.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 112 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19,908
7 days+$32,836
14 days+$59,475
30 days+$59,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $25,640 $25,330 −$310 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 94¢ $15,692 $16,502 +$810 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 41¢ $13,073 $15,372 +$2,299 (+18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 60¢ 77¢ $11,866 $15,155 +$3,289 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 65¢ $8,850 $9,750 +$900 (+10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $8,760 $9,457 +$697 (+8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 73¢ $6,168 $8,460 +$2,292 (+37%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $6,700 $7,450 +$750 (+11%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $6,827 $7,078 +$250 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $6,415 $6,899 +$484 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 92¢ 96¢ $6,470 $6,699 +$229 (+4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 61¢ $5,289 $6,195 +$906 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $6,052 $6,052 −$1 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $5,196 $5,883 +$687 (+13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $5,513 $5,733 +$220 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 62¢ $4,200 $5,535 +$1,335 (+32%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $4,128 $4,260 +$132 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 84¢ 91¢ $3,798 $4,125 +$327 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 68¢ 68¢ $4,080 $4,110 +$30 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $3,710 $4,037 +$328 (+9%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,869 $3,976 +$107 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $3,625 $3,671 +$47 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 94¢ 99¢ $3,468 $3,660 +$192 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $3,325 $3,325 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 84¢ $3,383 $3,227 −$156 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $12,060 −$10,431 -86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,300 +$700 +54%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $380 +$620 +163%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4,530 −$780 -17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $420 +$330 +79%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6,840 +$10,609 +155%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $2,886 +$714 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,032 +$183 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $4,607 +$24,583 +534%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,509 +$602 +40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,020 +$480 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $96 −$78 -81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3,432 +$2,334 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $683 −$683 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $310 −$310 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $273 −$273 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $438 −$438 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $438 −$438 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 12 $525 −$525 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2,308 −$1,579 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,491 −$4,195 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $930 +$570 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7,380 +$1,620 +22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $7,673 −$1,289 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $330 −$330 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,125 +$13 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,611 +$166 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $0 +$1 +212%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $51 +$13 +25%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $40 +$47 +117%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $11,977 +$523 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $975 +$1,525 +156%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,700 +$800 +47%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,870 +$805 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,800 +$5,200 +108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6,425 +$3,665 +57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,035 +$1,025 +99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 08 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $880 −$880 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 08 $920 −$920 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $660 −$660 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 73% +$43,992
sports 11% +$10,674
other 6% −$243
finance 5% +$12,177
crypto 4% −$5,519
politics 1% +$1,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $299 4m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 5m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 9m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $399 10m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $5 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 18m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $13 19m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 19m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 19m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $49 22m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $42 33m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $101 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $220 33m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $39 35m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 36m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $6 38m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $56 40m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 40m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $92 41m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 42m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 42m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $67 42m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $670 44m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $90 45m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $70 45m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 46m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $246 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 48% +13.6%
≤30d 64 +7.6% -2.6% 56% 50% +23.8%
≤90d 64 +7.6% -2.6% 56% 50% +23.8%
all 64 +7.6% -2.6% 56% 50% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover294.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 50% +23.8%
10% -12.0% 44% +11.9%
15% ← realistic here -20.5% 39% +1.1%
20% -28.3% 33% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271,038.11 · official $271,040.26 (match) · 3500 history records