Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe738…edf7 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-4%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$65
sports 20% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.5% -21.7% 57% 29% -14.7%
≤30d 8 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 25% -15.6%
≤90d 8 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 25% -15.6%
all 8 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 25% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 25% -15.6%
10% -37.9% 0% -23.7%
15% -43.9% 0% -31.1%
20% -49.4% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $134 +$16 +12%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $57 +$3 +5%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $121 +$13 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $214 −$71 -33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $213 +$11 +5%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $114 −$13 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $119 −$8 -7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$10 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 90¢ $73 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $67 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $55 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 93¢ $67 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $57 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $57 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 62¢ $43 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 55¢ $24 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 23¢ $28 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $100 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 77¢ $115 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $114 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records