trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 14% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 22% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 26 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 35% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 81¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 07 | $24 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $189 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 25 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 24 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 23 | $21 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 04 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 04 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | Oct 04 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Oct 01 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 24 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? | Sep 23 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 23 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Sep 16 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 15 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 29 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? | Aug 29 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? | Aug 28 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Aug 28 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Aug 28 | $37 | $0 | +0% |