Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe72f…8c4a other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$433 (-41%) realized −$423 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$150
crypto 37% −$107
sports 6% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
≤30d 5 -34.6% -40.8% 40% 40% -46.4%
≤90d 5 -34.6% -40.8% 40% 40% -46.4%
all 5 -34.6% -40.8% 40% 40% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 40% -46.4%
10% -46.5% 40% -51.5%
15% -51.7% 40% -56.2%
20% -56.4% 40% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$162 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$423
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage17d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $282 $272 −$10 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $169 +$119 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$59 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $331 −$327 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $287 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $169 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $98 15d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $63 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $103 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $331 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.18 · official $272.18 (match) · 8 history records