Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe72e…8db6 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 55L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
sports 21% −$2
other 14% −$2
economics 13% $0
politics 3% +$35
finance 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 35 +0.7% -8.9% 23% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 6% -9.5%
all 75 +13.8% +3.0% 27% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -6.9% 1% -17.8%
15% -15.9% 1% -25.7%
20% -24.1% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage314d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $107 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $212 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$6 +15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $259 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $112 +$7 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $102 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $547 −$2 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $92 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $92 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $189 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $111 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $11 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $157 −$8 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $132 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $11 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $202 +$3 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $4 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $84 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $727 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $953 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $667 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $43 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $107 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $107 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $72 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $64 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $91 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $57 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $49 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $32 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $15 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records